The Phillips multiplier

Regis Barnichon*, Geert Mesters

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

The Phillips multiplier is a statistic to non-parametrically characterize the central bank inflation-unemployment trade-off. Inference on the Phillips multiplier is based on a simple instrumental variable regression of cumulative inflation on cumulative unemployment using monetary shocks as instruments. We compute the Phillips multiplier for the US and the UK and document that the trade-off went from being large in the pre-1990 sample period to being small (but significant) post-1990. In contrast to earlier evidence of a flattening of the slope of Phillips curve, the decline in the trade-off is mostly due to the anchoring of inflation expectations.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Monetary Economics
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 1 Jan 2020

Keywords

  • Dynamic multiplier
  • Inflation-Unemployment trade-off
  • Instrumental variables
  • Phillips curve
  • Weak-instrument robust methods

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