The potential land-use impacts of bio-based plastics and plastic alternatives

One proposed solution to the global plastic crisis is replacing conventional plastics with bio-based plastics and alternatives. Recent studies suggest that bio-based products could mitigate the impacts of plastic pollution and that carbon emissions from the plastic sector could be reduced by using biomass as a plastic feedstock. Given the scale of plastic production, the resulting increase in biomass demand could induce detrimental land-use change at the global level. We use a spatially explicit land-system model to evaluate the land-use impact of bio-based plastic replacement up to the year 2040. At the global level, mitigating both plastic pollution and carbon emissions from the plastic sector could lead to a 22% increase in cropland expansion, a 35% increase in the area of cropland undergoing intensification and a 20% increase in deforestation relative to the baseline scenario. The amount and magnitude of land-use change depend on trade, technology and how alternative products are integrated into the plastics system. Decreasing plastic demand and production may prove a less risky strategy to mitigate the impacts of plastics.