The role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ocean-atmosphere interactions in driving US temperature variability

Sem Vijverberg*, Dim Coumou

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Heatwaves can have devastating impact on society and reliable early warnings at several weeks lead time are needed. Previous studies showed that north-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) can provide long-lead predictability for eastern US temperature, mediated by an atmospheric Rossby wave. The exact mechanisms, however, are not well understood. Here we analyze two different Rossby waves associated with temperature variability in western and eastern US, respectively. Causal discovery analyses reveal that both waves are characterized by positive ocean-atmosphere feedbacks at daily timescales. Only for the eastern US, a long-lead causal link from SSTs to the Rossby wave exists, which generates summer temperature predictability. We show that this SST forcing mechanism originates from the evolution of the winter-to-spring Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). During pronounced winter-to-spring PDO phases (either positive or negative) eastern US summer temperature forecast skill more than doubles, providing a temporary window of enhanced long-lead predictability.

Original languageEnglish
Article number18
Pages (from-to)1-11
Number of pages11
JournalNPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
Volume5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Mar 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
S.V. would like to thank dr. Giorgia Di Capua for the fruitful discussions on the experiment design and the anonymous reviewer who greatly helped to improve the clarity of the manuscript. The authors acknowledge funding from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), project: 016.Vidi.171.011.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).

Funding

S.V. would like to thank dr. Giorgia Di Capua for the fruitful discussions on the experiment design and the anonymous reviewer who greatly helped to improve the clarity of the manuscript. The authors acknowledge funding from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), project: 016.Vidi.171.011.

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