Toward an operational anthropogenic CO₂ emissions monitoring and verification support capacity

Under the Paris Agreement (PA), progress of emission reduction efforts is tracked on the basis of regular updates to national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, referred to as bottom-up estimates. However, only top-down atmospheric measurements can provide observation-based evidence of emission trends. Today, there is no internationally agreed, operational capacity to monitor anthropogenic GHG emission trends using atmospheric measurements to complement national bottom-up inventories. The European Commission (EC), the European Space Agency, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, and international experts are joining forces to develop such an operational capacity for monitoring anthropogenic CO₂ emissions as a new CO₂ service under the EC's Copernicus program. Design studies have been used to translate identified needs into defined requirements and functionalities of this anthropogenic CO₂ emissions Monitoring and Verification Support (CO₂MVS) capacity. It adopts a holistic view and includes components such as atmospheric spaceborne and in situ measurements, bottom-up CO₂ emission maps, improved modeling of the carbon cycle, an operational data-assimilation system integrating top-down and bottom-up information, and a policy-relevant decision support tool. The CO₂MVS capacity with operational capabilities by 2026 is expected to visualize regular updates of global CO₂ emissions, likely at 0.05° x 0.05°. This will complement the PA's enhanced transparency framework, providing actionable information on anthropogenic CO₂ emissions that are the main driver of climate change. This information will be available to all stakeholders, including governments and citizens, allowing them to reflect on trends and effectiveness of reduction measures. The new EC gave the green light to pass the CO₂MVS from exploratory to implementing phase.