Abstract
Studies show that climate variability drives interannual changes in meteorological variables in Europe, which directly or indirectly impacts crop production. However, there is no climate-based decision model that uses indices of atmospheric oscillation to predict agricultural production risks in Europe on multiple time-scales during the growing season. We used Fast-and-Frugal trees to predict sugar beet production, applying five large-scale indices of atmospheric oscillation: El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, East Atlantic Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern. We found that Fast-and-Frugal trees predicted high/low sugar beet production events in 77% of the investigated regions, corresponding to 81% of total European sugar beet production. For nearly half of these regions, high/low production could be predicted six or five months before the start of the sugar beet harvesting season, which represents approximately 44% of the mean annual sugar beet produced in all investigated areas. Providing early warning of crop production shortages/excess allows decision makers to prepare in advance. Therefore, the use of the indices of climate variability to forecast crop production is a promising tool to strengthen European agricultural climate resilience.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 1277 |
| Pages (from-to) | 1-13 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | Scientific Reports |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 4 Feb 2019 |
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Translating large-scale climate variability into crop production forecast in Europe. / Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Hunink, Johannes E.; Baruth, Bettina; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Ward, Philip J.
In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, No. 1, 1277, 04.02.2019, p. 1-13.Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Translating large-scale climate variability into crop production forecast in Europe
AU - Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela
AU - Hunink, Johannes E.
AU - Baruth, Bettina
AU - Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.
AU - Ward, Philip J.
PY - 2019/2/4
Y1 - 2019/2/4
N2 - Studies show that climate variability drives interannual changes in meteorological variables in Europe, which directly or indirectly impacts crop production. However, there is no climate-based decision model that uses indices of atmospheric oscillation to predict agricultural production risks in Europe on multiple time-scales during the growing season. We used Fast-and-Frugal trees to predict sugar beet production, applying five large-scale indices of atmospheric oscillation: El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, East Atlantic Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern. We found that Fast-and-Frugal trees predicted high/low sugar beet production events in 77% of the investigated regions, corresponding to 81% of total European sugar beet production. For nearly half of these regions, high/low production could be predicted six or five months before the start of the sugar beet harvesting season, which represents approximately 44% of the mean annual sugar beet produced in all investigated areas. Providing early warning of crop production shortages/excess allows decision makers to prepare in advance. Therefore, the use of the indices of climate variability to forecast crop production is a promising tool to strengthen European agricultural climate resilience.
AB - Studies show that climate variability drives interannual changes in meteorological variables in Europe, which directly or indirectly impacts crop production. However, there is no climate-based decision model that uses indices of atmospheric oscillation to predict agricultural production risks in Europe on multiple time-scales during the growing season. We used Fast-and-Frugal trees to predict sugar beet production, applying five large-scale indices of atmospheric oscillation: El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, East Atlantic Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern. We found that Fast-and-Frugal trees predicted high/low sugar beet production events in 77% of the investigated regions, corresponding to 81% of total European sugar beet production. For nearly half of these regions, high/low production could be predicted six or five months before the start of the sugar beet harvesting season, which represents approximately 44% of the mean annual sugar beet produced in all investigated areas. Providing early warning of crop production shortages/excess allows decision makers to prepare in advance. Therefore, the use of the indices of climate variability to forecast crop production is a promising tool to strengthen European agricultural climate resilience.
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85061034912&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-018-38091-4
DO - 10.1038/s41598-018-38091-4
M3 - Article
VL - 9
SP - 1
EP - 13
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
SN - 2045-2322
IS - 1
M1 - 1277
ER -