Translating large-scale climate variability into crop production forecast in Europe

Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Johannes E. Hunink, Bettina Baruth, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Studies show that climate variability drives interannual changes in meteorological variables in Europe, which directly or indirectly impacts crop production. However, there is no climate-based decision model that uses indices of atmospheric oscillation to predict agricultural production risks in Europe on multiple time-scales during the growing season. We used Fast-and-Frugal trees to predict sugar beet production, applying five large-scale indices of atmospheric oscillation: El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, East Atlantic Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern. We found that Fast-and-Frugal trees predicted high/low sugar beet production events in 77% of the investigated regions, corresponding to 81% of total European sugar beet production. For nearly half of these regions, high/low production could be predicted six or five months before the start of the sugar beet harvesting season, which represents approximately 44% of the mean annual sugar beet produced in all investigated areas. Providing early warning of crop production shortages/excess allows decision makers to prepare in advance. Therefore, the use of the indices of climate variability to forecast crop production is a promising tool to strengthen European agricultural climate resilience.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1277
Pages (from-to)1-13
Number of pages13
JournalScientific Reports
Volume9
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Feb 2019

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title = "Translating large-scale climate variability into crop production forecast in Europe",
abstract = "Studies show that climate variability drives interannual changes in meteorological variables in Europe, which directly or indirectly impacts crop production. However, there is no climate-based decision model that uses indices of atmospheric oscillation to predict agricultural production risks in Europe on multiple time-scales during the growing season. We used Fast-and-Frugal trees to predict sugar beet production, applying five large-scale indices of atmospheric oscillation: El Ni{\~n}o Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, East Atlantic Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern. We found that Fast-and-Frugal trees predicted high/low sugar beet production events in 77{\%} of the investigated regions, corresponding to 81{\%} of total European sugar beet production. For nearly half of these regions, high/low production could be predicted six or five months before the start of the sugar beet harvesting season, which represents approximately 44{\%} of the mean annual sugar beet produced in all investigated areas. Providing early warning of crop production shortages/excess allows decision makers to prepare in advance. Therefore, the use of the indices of climate variability to forecast crop production is a promising tool to strengthen European agricultural climate resilience.",
author = "{Guimar{\~a}es Nobre}, Gabriela and Hunink, {Johannes E.} and Bettina Baruth and Aerts, {Jeroen C.J.H.} and Ward, {Philip J.}",
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Translating large-scale climate variability into crop production forecast in Europe. / Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Hunink, Johannes E.; Baruth, Bettina; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Ward, Philip J.

In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, No. 1, 1277, 04.02.2019, p. 1-13.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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