Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk

J. Hinkel, L. Feyen, M. Hemer, G. Le Cozannet, D. Lincke, M. Marcos, L. Mentaschi, J.L. Merkens, H. de Moel, S. Muis, R.J. Nicholls, A.T. Vafeidis, R.S.W. van de Wal, M.I. Vousdoukas, T. Wahl, P.J. Ward, C. Wolff

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

© 2021. The Authors.This study provides a literature-based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world-regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea-level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea-level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio-economic development (factors 2.3–5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2–3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6–3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6–2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth-damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea-levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state-of-the-art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth-damage functions would be best reduced through open community-based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data.
Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2020EF001882
JournalEarth's Future
Volume9
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2021

Funding

The authors thank all participants of the COASTMIP project ( www.coastmip.org ) for the excellent discussions we had at our meetings, which supported the thinking that went into this paper. The authors also thank two anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments. DL, GLC, JH, MM, RvdW have been partially supported by the ERA4CS Project INSeaPTION (grant 01LS1703A) and DL and JH by the Project ISIPEDIA (grant 01LS1711C). Both Projects are part of ERA4CS, an ERA‐NET initiated by JPI Climate and funded by FORMAS (SE), BMBF (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co‐funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). DL, JH, RN and RvdW have received funding from the PROTECT project (grant 869304), and DL and JH from the COACCH project (grant 776479), both funded under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme. ATV, CW, DL and JH have been supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) through the SEASCAPE II project, which is part of the Special Priority Program 1889 Regional Sea Level Change and Society. MM has been partially supported by the MOCCA project (grant RTI2018‐093941‐B‐C31). TW was partially supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the New (Early Career) Investigator Program in Earth Science (grant number: 80NSSC18K0743) and MH was partially supported by the Australian Government National Environmental Science Program Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. PJW has been supported by the Dutch Research Council (NWO) in the form of a VIDI grant (grant no. 016.161.324).

FundersFunder number
Australian Government National Environmental Science Program Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub
IFD
ISIPEDIA01LS1711C
MOCCARTI2018‐093941‐B‐C31
Special Priority Program 1889 Regional Sea Level Change and Society
National Aeronautics and Space Administration80NSSC18K0743
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme776479, 690462, 869304
European Commission
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
Agence Nationale de la Recherche
Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek016.161.324
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
Bundesministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Wirtschaft
Horizon 2020

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this