TY - JOUR
T1 - Unravelling the influence of human behaviour on reducing casualties during flood evacuation
AU - Alonso Vicario, S.
AU - Mazzoleni, M.
AU - Bhamidipati, S.
AU - Gharesifard, M.
AU - Ridolfi, E.
AU - Pandolfo, C.
AU - Alfonso, L.
PY - 2020/10/25
Y1 - 2020/10/25
N2 - © 2020 IAHS.Floods are the natural hazards that are causing the most deaths worldwide. Flood early warning systems are one of the most cost-efficient methods to reduce death rates, triggering decisions about the evacuation of exposed population. Although previous studies have investigated the effect of human behaviours on evacuation processes, studies analysing a combination of behaviours, flood onset and warning timing are limited. Our objective is to explore how changes on the aforementioned factors can affect casualties. This is done within a modelling framework that includes an agent-based model, a hydraulic model, and a traffic model, which is implemented for the case study of Orvieto (Italy). The results show that the number of casualties is most impacted by people’s behaviour. Besides, we found that a delay of 30 min in releasing the warning can boost the number of casualties up to six times. These results may help managers to propose effective emergency plans.
AB - © 2020 IAHS.Floods are the natural hazards that are causing the most deaths worldwide. Flood early warning systems are one of the most cost-efficient methods to reduce death rates, triggering decisions about the evacuation of exposed population. Although previous studies have investigated the effect of human behaviours on evacuation processes, studies analysing a combination of behaviours, flood onset and warning timing are limited. Our objective is to explore how changes on the aforementioned factors can affect casualties. This is done within a modelling framework that includes an agent-based model, a hydraulic model, and a traffic model, which is implemented for the case study of Orvieto (Italy). The results show that the number of casualties is most impacted by people’s behaviour. Besides, we found that a delay of 30 min in releasing the warning can boost the number of casualties up to six times. These results may help managers to propose effective emergency plans.
U2 - 10.1080/02626667.2020.1810254
DO - 10.1080/02626667.2020.1810254
M3 - Article
SN - 0262-6667
VL - 65
SP - 2359
EP - 2375
JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal
JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal
IS - 14
ER -