Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach

Michel G.J. den Elzen; Ioannis Dafnomilis; Nicklas Forsell; Panagiotis Fragkos; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Niklas Höhne; Takeshi Kuramochi; Leonardo Nascimento; Mark Roelfsema; Heleen van Soest; Frank Sperling

doi:10.1007/s11027-022-10008-7

Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach

Michel G.J. den Elzen^*, Ioannis Dafnomilis, Nicklas Forsell, Panagiotis Fragkos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Niklas Höhne, Takeshi Kuramochi, Leonardo Nascimento, Mark Roelfsema, Heleen van Soest, Frank Sperling

^*Corresponding author for this work

Environmental Economics

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

By January 2022, 156 countries had submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new NDCs. The total impact of the updated unconditional and conditional NDCs of these countries on global emission levels by 2030 is an additional reduction of about 3.8 and 3.9 GtCO₂eq, respectively, compared to the previously submitted NDCs as of October 2020. However, this total reduction must be about three times greater to be consistent with keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even seven times greater for 1.5 °C. Nine G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to additional aggregated GHG emission reductions of about 3.3 GtCO₂eq, compared to those in the previous NDCs. The socio-economic impacts of the updated NDCs are limited in major economies and largely depend on the emission reduction effort included in the NDCs. However, two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCO₂eq, compared to their previous NDCs. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions. We conclude that countries should strongly increase the ambition levels of their updated NDC submissions to keep the climate goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.

Original language	English
Article number	33
Pages (from-to)	1-29
Number of pages	29
Journal	Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Volume	27
Issue number	5
Early online date	21 Jun 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-022-10008-7
Publication status	Published - Jun 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 821471: ENGAGE; grant agreement no. 821124: NAVIGATE). The authors declare they have no financial interests that are directly or indirectly related to the work submitted for publication.

Funding Information:
We thank all colleagues involved, in particular Andries Hof (PBL) for his comments and edits, Marian Abels (PBL) for all her work on the graphics, and Annemieke Righart (PBL) for English editing. The analysis presented in this article greatly benefited from the Climate Action Tracker project, run by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).

Funding

This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 821471: ENGAGE; grant agreement no. 821124: NAVIGATE). The authors declare they have no financial interests that are directly or indirectly related to the work submitted for publication. We thank all colleagues involved, in particular Andries Hof (PBL) for his comments and edits, Marian Abels (PBL) for all her work on the graphics, and Annemieke Righart (PBL) for English editing. The analysis presented in this article greatly benefited from the Climate Action Tracker project, run by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute.

Funders	Funder number
NewClimate Institute
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	821471, 821124
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme

Keywords

Climate change mitigation
Climate policy
Greenhouse gas emissions scenario
Integrated assessment models
NDC
Paris Agreement

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/s11027-022-10008-7

Persistent URL (handle)

Persistent link

Cite this

den Elzen, M. G. J., Dafnomilis, I., Forsell, N., Fragkos, P., Fragkiadakis, K., Höhne, N., Kuramochi, T., Nascimento, L., Roelfsema, M., van Soest, H., & Sperling, F. (2022). Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 27(5), 1-29. Article 33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-022-10008-7

@article{c4e78321f49945b2851c2d86cef227d1,

title = "Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach",

abstract = "By January 2022, 156 countries had submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new NDCs. The total impact of the updated unconditional and conditional NDCs of these countries on global emission levels by 2030 is an additional reduction of about 3.8 and 3.9 GtCO2eq, respectively, compared to the previously submitted NDCs as of October 2020. However, this total reduction must be about three times greater to be consistent with keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even seven times greater for 1.5 °C. Nine G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to additional aggregated GHG emission reductions of about 3.3 GtCO2eq, compared to those in the previous NDCs. The socio-economic impacts of the updated NDCs are limited in major economies and largely depend on the emission reduction effort included in the NDCs. However, two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCO2eq, compared to their previous NDCs. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions. We conclude that countries should strongly increase the ambition levels of their updated NDC submissions to keep the climate goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.",

keywords = "Climate change mitigation, Climate policy, Greenhouse gas emissions scenario, Integrated assessment models, NDC, Paris Agreement",

author = "{den Elzen}, {Michel G.J.} and Ioannis Dafnomilis and Nicklas Forsell and Panagiotis Fragkos and Kostas Fragkiadakis and Niklas H{\"o}hne and Takeshi Kuramochi and Leonardo Nascimento and Mark Roelfsema and {van Soest}, Heleen and Frank Sperling",

note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 821471: ENGAGE; grant agreement no. 821124: NAVIGATE). The authors declare they have no financial interests that are directly or indirectly related to the work submitted for publication. Funding Information: We thank all colleagues involved, in particular Andries Hof (PBL) for his comments and edits, Marian Abels (PBL) for all her work on the graphics, and Annemieke Righart (PBL) for English editing. The analysis presented in this article greatly benefited from the Climate Action Tracker project, run by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",

year = "2022",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1007/s11027-022-10008-7",

language = "English",

volume = "27",

pages = "1--29",

journal = "Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change",

issn = "1381-2386",

publisher = "Springer Netherlands",

number = "5",

}

den Elzen, MGJ, Dafnomilis, I, Forsell, N, Fragkos, P, Fragkiadakis, K, Höhne, N, Kuramochi, T, Nascimento, L, Roelfsema, M, van Soest, H & Sperling, F 2022, 'Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach', Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, vol. 27, no. 5, 33, pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-022-10008-7

Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach. / den Elzen, Michel G.J.; Dafnomilis, Ioannis; Forsell, Nicklas et al.
In: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 27, No. 5, 33, 06.2022, p. 1-29.

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach

AU - den Elzen, Michel G.J.

AU - Dafnomilis, Ioannis

AU - Forsell, Nicklas

AU - Fragkos, Panagiotis

AU - Fragkiadakis, Kostas

AU - Höhne, Niklas

AU - Kuramochi, Takeshi

AU - Nascimento, Leonardo

AU - Roelfsema, Mark

AU - van Soest, Heleen

AU - Sperling, Frank

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 821471: ENGAGE; grant agreement no. 821124: NAVIGATE). The authors declare they have no financial interests that are directly or indirectly related to the work submitted for publication. Funding Information: We thank all colleagues involved, in particular Andries Hof (PBL) for his comments and edits, Marian Abels (PBL) for all her work on the graphics, and Annemieke Righart (PBL) for English editing. The analysis presented in this article greatly benefited from the Climate Action Tracker project, run by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).

PY - 2022/6

Y1 - 2022/6

N2 - By January 2022, 156 countries had submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new NDCs. The total impact of the updated unconditional and conditional NDCs of these countries on global emission levels by 2030 is an additional reduction of about 3.8 and 3.9 GtCO2eq, respectively, compared to the previously submitted NDCs as of October 2020. However, this total reduction must be about three times greater to be consistent with keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even seven times greater for 1.5 °C. Nine G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to additional aggregated GHG emission reductions of about 3.3 GtCO2eq, compared to those in the previous NDCs. The socio-economic impacts of the updated NDCs are limited in major economies and largely depend on the emission reduction effort included in the NDCs. However, two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCO2eq, compared to their previous NDCs. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions. We conclude that countries should strongly increase the ambition levels of their updated NDC submissions to keep the climate goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.

AB - By January 2022, 156 countries had submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new NDCs. The total impact of the updated unconditional and conditional NDCs of these countries on global emission levels by 2030 is an additional reduction of about 3.8 and 3.9 GtCO2eq, respectively, compared to the previously submitted NDCs as of October 2020. However, this total reduction must be about three times greater to be consistent with keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even seven times greater for 1.5 °C. Nine G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to additional aggregated GHG emission reductions of about 3.3 GtCO2eq, compared to those in the previous NDCs. The socio-economic impacts of the updated NDCs are limited in major economies and largely depend on the emission reduction effort included in the NDCs. However, two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCO2eq, compared to their previous NDCs. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions. We conclude that countries should strongly increase the ambition levels of their updated NDC submissions to keep the climate goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.

KW - Climate change mitigation

KW - Climate policy

KW - Greenhouse gas emissions scenario

KW - Integrated assessment models

KW - NDC

KW - Paris Agreement

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85132821687&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85132821687&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s11027-022-10008-7

DO - 10.1007/s11027-022-10008-7

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85132821687

SN - 1381-2386

VL - 27

SP - 1

EP - 29

JO - Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

JF - Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

IS - 5

M1 - 33

ER -

Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Persistent URL (handle)

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this