Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

O. Heiri, S.J. Brooks, H. Renssen, A. Bedford, M. Hazekamp, B. Ilyashuk, E.S. Jeffers, B. Lang, E. Kirilova, S. Kuiper, L. Millet, S. Samartin, M. Toth, F. Verbruggen, J.E. Watson, N. van Asch, E. Lammertsma, L. Amon, H.H. Birks, H.J.B. Birks & 9 others M.F. Mortensen, W.Z. Hoek, E. Magyari, C. Muñoz Sobrino, H. Seppa, W. Tinner, S. Tonkov, S. Veski, A.F. Lotter

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.
Original languageEnglish
Article number4914
JournalNature Communications
Volume5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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Climate models
climate models
Climate
Temperature
summer
temperature
Atmospheric General Circulation Models
Proxy
continents
Earth (planet)
trends
estimates
simulation

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Heiri, O., Brooks, S. J., Renssen, H., Bedford, A., Hazekamp, M., Ilyashuk, B., ... Lotter, A. F. (2014). Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe. Nature Communications, 5, [4914]. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5914
Heiri, O. ; Brooks, S.J. ; Renssen, H. ; Bedford, A. ; Hazekamp, M. ; Ilyashuk, B. ; Jeffers, E.S. ; Lang, B. ; Kirilova, E. ; Kuiper, S. ; Millet, L. ; Samartin, S. ; Toth, M. ; Verbruggen, F. ; Watson, J.E. ; van Asch, N. ; Lammertsma, E. ; Amon, L. ; Birks, H.H. ; Birks, H.J.B. ; Mortensen, M.F. ; Hoek, W.Z. ; Magyari, E. ; Muñoz Sobrino, C. ; Seppa, H. ; Tinner, W. ; Tonkov, S. ; Veski, S. ; Lotter, A.F. / Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe. In: Nature Communications. 2014 ; Vol. 5.
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abstract = "Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.",
author = "O. Heiri and S.J. Brooks and H. Renssen and A. Bedford and M. Hazekamp and B. Ilyashuk and E.S. Jeffers and B. Lang and E. Kirilova and S. Kuiper and L. Millet and S. Samartin and M. Toth and F. Verbruggen and J.E. Watson and {van Asch}, N. and E. Lammertsma and L. Amon and H.H. Birks and H.J.B. Birks and M.F. Mortensen and W.Z. Hoek and E. Magyari and {Mu{\~n}oz Sobrino}, C. and H. Seppa and W. Tinner and S. Tonkov and S. Veski and A.F. Lotter",
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Heiri, O, Brooks, SJ, Renssen, H, Bedford, A, Hazekamp, M, Ilyashuk, B, Jeffers, ES, Lang, B, Kirilova, E, Kuiper, S, Millet, L, Samartin, S, Toth, M, Verbruggen, F, Watson, JE, van Asch, N, Lammertsma, E, Amon, L, Birks, HH, Birks, HJB, Mortensen, MF, Hoek, WZ, Magyari, E, Muñoz Sobrino, C, Seppa, H, Tinner, W, Tonkov, S, Veski, S & Lotter, AF 2014, 'Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe' Nature Communications, vol. 5, 4914. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5914

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe. / Heiri, O.; Brooks, S.J.; Renssen, H.; Bedford, A.; Hazekamp, M.; Ilyashuk, B.; Jeffers, E.S.; Lang, B.; Kirilova, E.; Kuiper, S.; Millet, L.; Samartin, S.; Toth, M.; Verbruggen, F.; Watson, J.E.; van Asch, N.; Lammertsma, E.; Amon, L.; Birks, H.H.; Birks, H.J.B.; Mortensen, M.F.; Hoek, W.Z.; Magyari, E.; Muñoz Sobrino, C.; Seppa, H.; Tinner, W.; Tonkov, S.; Veski, S.; Lotter, A.F.

In: Nature Communications, Vol. 5, 4914, 2014.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

AU - Heiri, O.

AU - Brooks, S.J.

AU - Renssen, H.

AU - Bedford, A.

AU - Hazekamp, M.

AU - Ilyashuk, B.

AU - Jeffers, E.S.

AU - Lang, B.

AU - Kirilova, E.

AU - Kuiper, S.

AU - Millet, L.

AU - Samartin, S.

AU - Toth, M.

AU - Verbruggen, F.

AU - Watson, J.E.

AU - van Asch, N.

AU - Lammertsma, E.

AU - Amon, L.

AU - Birks, H.H.

AU - Birks, H.J.B.

AU - Mortensen, M.F.

AU - Hoek, W.Z.

AU - Magyari, E.

AU - Muñoz Sobrino, C.

AU - Seppa, H.

AU - Tinner, W.

AU - Tonkov, S.

AU - Veski, S.

AU - Lotter, A.F.

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

AB - Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

U2 - 10.1038/ncomms5914

DO - 10.1038/ncomms5914

M3 - Article

VL - 5

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

M1 - 4914

ER -