Variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia and its nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño

The large peatland carbon stocks in the land use change-affected areas of equatorial Asia are vulnerable to fire. Combining satellite observations of active fire, burned area, and atmospheric concentrations of combustion tracers with a Bayesian inversion, we estimated the amount and variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia over the period 1997–2015. Emissions in 2015 were of 0.51 ± 0.17 Pg carbon—less than half of the emissions from the previous 1997 extreme El Niño, explained by a less acute water deficit. Fire severity could be empirically hindcasted from the cumulative water deficit with a lead time of 1 to 2 months. Based on CMIP5 climate projections and an exponential empirical relationship found between fire carbon emissions and water deficit, we infer a total fire carbon loss ranging from 12 to 25 Pg by 2100 which is a significant positive feedback to climate warming.