Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

S. Khanal*, A. F. Lutz, P. D.A. Kraaijenbrink, B. van den Hurk, T. Yao, W. W. Immerzeel

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

The hydrological response to climate change in mountainous basins manifests itself at varying spatial and temporal scales, ranging from catchment to large river basin scale and from sub-daily to decade and century scale. To robustly assess the 21st century climate change impact for hydrology in entire High Mountain Asia (HMA) at a wide range of scales, we use a high resolution cryospheric-hydrological model covering 15 upstream HMA basins to quantify the compound effects of future changes in precipitation and temperature based on the range of climate change projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate model ensemble. Our analysis reveals contrasting responses for HMA's rivers, dictated by their hydrological regimes. At the seasonal scale, the earlier onset of melting causes a shift in the magnitude and peak of water availability, to earlier in the year. At the decade to century scale, after an initial increase, the glacier melt declines by the mid or end of the century except for the Tarim river basin, where it continues to increase. Despite a large variability in hydrological regimes across HMA's rivers, our results indicate relatively consistent climate change responses across HMA in terms of total water availability at decadal time scales. Although total water availability increases for the headwaters, changes in seasonality and magnitude may diverge widely between basins and need to be addressed while adapting to future changes in a region where food security, energy security as well as biodiversity, and the livelihoods of many depend on water from HMA.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2020WR029266
Pages (from-to)1-26
Number of pages26
JournalWater Resources Research
Volume57
Issue number5
Early online date11 May 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The project received funding from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Grant No. XDA20100300. This project was also partly funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 676027 and 676819), and by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the Innovational Research Incentives Scheme VIDI (grant agreement 016.181.308). The authors thank Fanny Brun for providing the glacier mass balance data for high mountain Asia. The authors also thank the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and the Bhutan National Center of Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) for providing discharge data. Streamflow data are also obtained from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) (https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/). We thank 3 anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve the manuscript. We would also like to thank Rene Wijngaard for helpful discussions.

Funding Information:
The project received funding from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Grant No. XDA20100300. This project was also partly funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 676027 and 676819), and by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the Innovational Research Incentives Scheme VIDI (grant agreement 016.181.308). The authors thank Fanny Brun for providing the glacier mass balance data for high mountain Asia. The authors also thank the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and the Bhutan National Center of Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) for providing discharge data. Streamflow data are also obtained from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) ( https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/ ). We thank 3 anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve the manuscript. We would also like to thank Rene Wijngaard for helpful discussions.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021. The Authors.

Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

Funding

The project received funding from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Grant No. XDA20100300. This project was also partly funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 676027 and 676819), and by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the Innovational Research Incentives Scheme VIDI (grant agreement 016.181.308). The authors thank Fanny Brun for providing the glacier mass balance data for high mountain Asia. The authors also thank the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and the Bhutan National Center of Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) for providing discharge data. Streamflow data are also obtained from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) (https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/). We thank 3 anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve the manuscript. We would also like to thank Rene Wijngaard for helpful discussions. The project received funding from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Grant No. XDA20100300. This project was also partly funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 676027 and 676819), and by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the Innovational Research Incentives Scheme VIDI (grant agreement 016.181.308). The authors thank Fanny Brun for providing the glacier mass balance data for high mountain Asia. The authors also thank the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and the Bhutan National Center of Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) for providing discharge data. Streamflow data are also obtained from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) ( https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/ ). We thank 3 anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve the manuscript. We would also like to thank Rene Wijngaard for helpful discussions.

FundersFunder number
Bhutan National Center of Hydrology and Meteorology
DHM
Global Runoff Data Center
NCHM
Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority
WAPDA
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
European Research Council
Chinese Academy of SciencesXDA20100300
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek016.181.308
Horizon 2020676027, 676819

    Keywords

    • climate change
    • High Mountain Asia
    • hydrological regimes
    • seasonality
    • spatial and temporal changes
    • water towers

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