Abstract
The hydrological response to climate change in mountainous basins manifests itself at varying spatial and temporal scales, ranging from catchment to large river basin scale and from sub-daily to decade and century scale. To robustly assess the 21st century climate change impact for hydrology in entire High Mountain Asia (HMA) at a wide range of scales, we use a high resolution cryospheric-hydrological model covering 15 upstream HMA basins to quantify the compound effects of future changes in precipitation and temperature based on the range of climate change projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate model ensemble. Our analysis reveals contrasting responses for HMA's rivers, dictated by their hydrological regimes. At the seasonal scale, the earlier onset of melting causes a shift in the magnitude and peak of water availability, to earlier in the year. At the decade to century scale, after an initial increase, the glacier melt declines by the mid or end of the century except for the Tarim river basin, where it continues to increase. Despite a large variability in hydrological regimes across HMA's rivers, our results indicate relatively consistent climate change responses across HMA in terms of total water availability at decadal time scales. Although total water availability increases for the headwaters, changes in seasonality and magnitude may diverge widely between basins and need to be addressed while adapting to future changes in a region where food security, energy security as well as biodiversity, and the livelihoods of many depend on water from HMA.
Original language | English |
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Article number | e2020WR029266 |
Pages (from-to) | 1-26 |
Number of pages | 26 |
Journal | Water Resources Research |
Volume | 57 |
Issue number | 5 |
Early online date | 11 May 2021 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - May 2021 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:The project received funding from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Grant No. XDA20100300. This project was also partly funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 676027 and 676819), and by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the Innovational Research Incentives Scheme VIDI (grant agreement 016.181.308). The authors thank Fanny Brun for providing the glacier mass balance data for high mountain Asia. The authors also thank the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and the Bhutan National Center of Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) for providing discharge data. Streamflow data are also obtained from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) (https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/). We thank 3 anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve the manuscript. We would also like to thank Rene Wijngaard for helpful discussions.
Funding Information:
The project received funding from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Grant No. XDA20100300. This project was also partly funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 676027 and 676819), and by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the Innovational Research Incentives Scheme VIDI (grant agreement 016.181.308). The authors thank Fanny Brun for providing the glacier mass balance data for high mountain Asia. The authors also thank the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and the Bhutan National Center of Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) for providing discharge data. Streamflow data are also obtained from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) ( https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/ ). We thank 3 anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve the manuscript. We would also like to thank Rene Wijngaard for helpful discussions.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021. The Authors.
Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
Funding
The project received funding from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Grant No. XDA20100300. This project was also partly funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 676027 and 676819), and by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the Innovational Research Incentives Scheme VIDI (grant agreement 016.181.308). The authors thank Fanny Brun for providing the glacier mass balance data for high mountain Asia. The authors also thank the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and the Bhutan National Center of Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) for providing discharge data. Streamflow data are also obtained from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) (https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/). We thank 3 anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve the manuscript. We would also like to thank Rene Wijngaard for helpful discussions. The project received funding from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Grant No. XDA20100300. This project was also partly funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 676027 and 676819), and by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the Innovational Research Incentives Scheme VIDI (grant agreement 016.181.308). The authors thank Fanny Brun for providing the glacier mass balance data for high mountain Asia. The authors also thank the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and the Bhutan National Center of Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) for providing discharge data. Streamflow data are also obtained from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) ( https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/ ). We thank 3 anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve the manuscript. We would also like to thank Rene Wijngaard for helpful discussions.
Funders | Funder number |
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Bhutan National Center of Hydrology and Meteorology | |
DHM | |
Global Runoff Data Center | |
NCHM | |
Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology | |
Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority | |
WAPDA | |
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme | |
European Research Council | |
Chinese Academy of Sciences | XDA20100300 |
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek | 016.181.308 |
Horizon 2020 | 676027, 676819 |
Keywords
- climate change
- High Mountain Asia
- hydrological regimes
- seasonality
- spatial and temporal changes
- water towers