Objective. To determine the 6-year incidence of type-2 diabetes mellitus in the general population. Design. Prospective cohort study. Method. For 1,342 non-diabetic subjects from the region of Hoorn, the Netherlands, aged 50-74 years at baseline in 1989/'92, a 75 g oral glucose-tolerance test was carried out and at the 6-year follow-up examination in 1996-1998. The mean follow-up duration was 6.4 years. The cumulative incidence of diabetes was calculated according to 3 different definitions of diabetes: the World Health Organization diagnostic criteria (WHO-1985 and WHO-1999), based on the fasting and the 2-hour postload glucose concentrations, and those of the American Diabetes Association (ADA-1997,) based solely on the fasting glucose concentration. Results. The cumulative incidence of diabetes was 6.1%, 8.3% and 9.9% according to the WHO-1985, ADA-1997 and WHO-1999 criteria, respectively. The cumulative incidence of diabetes (WHO-1999 criteria) for subjects with both impaired glucose tolerance and impaired fasting glucose at baseline was 64.5%, compared to 4.5% for subjects with normal glucose levels at baseline. The odds ratios for developing diabetes, adjusted for age, sex and follow-up duration, were 10.0 (6.1-16.5) for isolated impaired fasting glucose, 10.9 (6.0-19.9) for isolated impaired glucose tolerance, and 39.5 (17.0-92.1) for both. The waist-to-hip ratio was another important risk factor for developing diabetes. Conclusion. In the predominantly white population the cumulative incidence of diabetes was strongly increased in case of impaired fasting or 2-hour postload glucose at baseline, particularly if both were present.
|Translated title of the contribution||Elevated fasting and postload glucose concentrations: Risk factors for developing type-2 diabetes mellitus; results of the Hoorn study|
|Number of pages||5|
|Journal||Nederlands Tijdschrift voor Geneeskunde|
|Publication status||Published - 19 Jul 2003|