Vietnam’s Evolving Poverty Index Map: Patterns and Implications for Policy

This paper uses small area estimation techniques to estimate the poverty indexes of Vietnam’s provinces and districts in 2009. We find that poverty rates have become more spatially concentrated over time, which is consistent with widely observed growth processes linked to agglomeration. We hypothesize that this makes geographic targeting of the poor more relevant as a means to re-balance growing welfare disparities between geographic areas. Simulations indicate that in both 1999 and 2009 geographic targeting for poverty alleviation improves upon a uniform lump-sum transfer and this becomes more evident the more spatially disaggregated the target populations.