Wetenschap voor de verre toekomst

Scientific evidence has become increasingly important in supporting policy decisions. Based on scientific predictions and economic assessments, precise
cost-benefit analyses can be developed to guide policymaking. I address the question of whether such analyses remain meaningful for policy decisions with long-term consequences, spanning multiple decades or even centuries. There are significant complications when applying cost-benefit analyses to long-term policy. Standard models allow weighing current costs and benefits against future ones through discounting, but this approach becomes problematic when future generations are involved. Moreover, uncertainties in scientific and economic projections increase over time. As a result, both the normative justification and predictive power of long-term cost-benefit analyses diminish. I illustrate the problems by means of the case study of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) in climate policy. I conclude that long-term policymaking cannot rely on cost-benefit analyses solely.