Where are Europe’s last primary forests?

Francesco Maria Sabatini*, Sabina Burrascano, William S. Keeton, Christian Levers, Marcus Lindner, Florian Pötzschner, Pieter Johannes Verkerk, Jürgen Bauhus, Erik Buchwald, Oleh Chaskovsky, Nicolas Debaive, Ferenc Horváth, Matteo Garbarino, Nikolaos Grigoriadis, Fabio Lombardi, Inês Marques Duarte, Peter Meyer, Rein Midteng, Stjepan Mikac, Martin MikolášRenzo Motta, Gintautas Mozgeris, Leónia Nunes, Momchil Panayotov, Peter Ódor, Alejandro Ruete, Bojan Simovski, Jonas Stillhard, Miroslav Svoboda, Jerzy Szwagrzyk, Olli Pekka Tikkanen, Roman Volosyanchuk, Tomas Vrska, Tzvetan Zlatanov, Tobias Kuemmerle

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalReview articleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Aim: Primary forests have high conservation value but are rare in Europe due to historic land use. Yet many primary forest patches remain unmapped, and it is unclear to what extent they are effectively protected. Our aim was to (1) compile the most comprehensive European-scale map of currently known primary forests, (2) analyse the spatial determinants characterizing their location and (3) locate areas where so far unmapped primary forests likely occur. Location: Europe. Methods: We aggregated data from a literature review, online questionnaires and 32 datasets of primary forests. We used boosted regression trees to explore which biophysical, socio-economic and forest-related variables explain the current distribution of primary forests. Finally, we predicted and mapped the relative likelihood of primary forest occurrence at a 1-km resolution across Europe. Results: Data on primary forests were frequently incomplete or inconsistent among countries. Known primary forests covered 1.4 Mha in 32 countries (0.7% of Europe’s forest area). Most of these forests were protected (89%), but only 46% of them strictly. Primary forests mostly occurred in mountain and boreal areas and were unevenly distributed across countries, biogeographical regions and forest types. Unmapped primary forests likely occur in the least accessible and populated areas, where forests cover a greater share of land, but wood demand historically has been low. Main conclusions: Despite their outstanding conservation value, primary forests are rare and their current distribution is the result of centuries of land use and forest management. The conservation outlook for primary forests is uncertain as many are not strictly protected and most are small and fragmented, making them prone to extinction debt and human disturbance. Predicting where unmapped primary forests likely occur could guide conservation efforts, especially in Eastern Europe where large areas of primary forest still exist but are being lost at an alarming pace.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1426-1439
Number of pages14
JournalDiversity and Distributions
Volume24
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2018
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • boosted regression trees
  • forest naturalness
  • land-use change
  • old-growth forest
  • primary forest
  • spatial determinants
  • sustainable forest management
  • virgin forest

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